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No job recovery for another five years forecasted

A new report by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) argues that it may take as long as five more years before unemployment and employment numbers return to their pre-recession levels. The report was conducted on data across 69 developed countries, including the United Kingdom and United States. The International Labour Organisation (which is part of the United Nations) argues that there are now as many as 23 million fewer jobs than there were before the recession took hold back in early 2008. Over the last six months large stimulus packages (such as quantitative easing at central banks) have turned into spending cuts to reduce large government deficits. The ILO argue that the impact of this will be to delay the reduction in unemployment and job growth, resulting in a weakened labour market until as late as 2015.

Budget cuts to hamper job growth

The 2010 “World of Work Report” did highlight areas of improvement in terms of economic growth over the last year but also noted the significant impact that spending cuts could have on jobs in a number of developed economies, including the United Kingdom. Over the last two years governments have had to prop up their respective economies with increased government spending at a time when tax revenues have fallen sharply. The combined result has been to push public debt up to record levels, with Greece even having to be bailed out by the European Union. The large rise in government spending helped to prevent a catastrophic collapse in the banking sector and wider economy but has led to national debt levels very close to the realm of instability. As a result, governments are now having to cut back on spending to fight the large budget deficit and debt levels, which will naturally have a very significant negative impact on employment opportunities.

Long-term unemployment a real risk!

The World of Work Report also found that about 40 per cent of unemployed individuals have been without work for over a year now. The report argues that the weak outlook in the job market for those long-term unemployed can cause significant demoralization, loss of self-esteem, mental health issues and even wider social unrest. Given the large proportion of individuals who have been unemployed for over a year it makes sense in this market to take out a 24 month mortgage protection plan, which could potentially cover your mortgage loan repayments for up to two years should you suffer forced redundancy.

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Published by Andrew Jenkinson
Financial Services Authority